Demolinguistic projections: a tool for defining and discussing language policy in the Northern Basque Country?

Abstract

The sociolinguistic survey conducted every five years is today the main tool used to assess the vitality of Basque language in the Northern Basque Country. With the 2021 survey being the seventh of its kind, actors and political decision-makers working in favor of the Basque language now have a solid data source on the evolution of Euskara’s situation in the territory, which can be put into perspective with the initiatives undertaken over the past 30 years in the field of linguistic policy planning. However, until now, these sociolinguistic data have not been exploited for the purpose of planning future linguistic policies for the Northern Basque Country territory. Furthermore, while multiple processes and dynamics influence the revitalization process of Euskara, there are currently few or no projection tools, especially for the long term. Demographics is one of these processes that influences the sociolinguistic situation, yet it remains little studied from this angle. The work that follows is therefore a methodological proposal for articulating sociolinguistic and demographic data with the aim of constructing 3 hypotheses for the evolution of the number and proportion of Basque speakers in the Northern Basque Country over the next 25 years. Taking into account the methodological, theoretical, and philosophical limitations of these hypotheses, the main objective of the team that developed this tool is to provide decision-makers and actors in linguistic planning with one tool among others, to serve the debate on the future directions of Euskara in the Northern Basque Country.